02.08.2019-377 views -Statistics: Practice
1 . (24 points)
If perhaps needed, additional workspace is definitely provided on the next linen.
Doug Moodie is the director of Back garden Products Limited. Over the last 5 years, his vice president of marketing has been offering the product sales forecast employing his exceptional " focusвЂќ forecasting technique. The actual sales for the past 10 years and the forecasts from the vp of marketing receive below.
|Year |Sales |VP/Marketing Forecast | |1 |170, 300 |-- | |2 |168, two hundred fifty |-- | |3 |165, 700 |-- | |4 |169, 1000 |-- | |5 |168, 000 |-- | |6 |167, 300 |170, 500 | |7 |175, two hundred fifty |170, 1000 | |8 |172, 500 |180, 1000 | |9 |156, seven hundred |180, 500 | |10 |176, three hundred |160, 1000
Doug wonders if perhaps a measured moving common or an exponential smoothing approach to predicting might be better than having the vp of marketing put together the outlook. Doug really wants to evaluate a two-period measured moving common with weight loads of zero. 7 and 0. a few for the most recent and next most recent periods. This individual also really wants to evaluate the rapid smoothing with an О± = 0. 3 and a beginning forecast for period 6 of 168, 000 models.
a) Which in turn of the 3 methods (weighted moving common, exponential smoothing and VP/Marketing) provides the best forecasting technique if you were to gauge these methods for their predicting accuracy for Years 8 through 10. Employ one of the analysis methods we have discussed.
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b) Partly a) we all identified which is the best method of the people three strategies. However , do you recommend using this method for foretelling of sales pertaining to Year 11? Why or perhaps Why not?
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c) What would be the forecast for Yr 11 applying both the weighted moving normal and the exponential smoothing strategies?
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2 . (23 points)
Lake Charles Seafoods makes five-hundred wooden providing boxes to get fresh sea food per day, employed in two 10-hour shifts. The marketing division has advised that demand has increased so that 650 wooden boxes to get fresh seafood are required daily. Due to bigger demand, herb managers are looking at operating three 8-hour shifts instead. Productivity is scored in terms of boxes produced per hour worked.
a) Calculate the productivity in the operation intended for the two-shift operation creating 500 packing containers.
500/20 sama dengan 25 bins per hour
b) Calculate the productivity from the operation intended for the three-shift operation making 650 boxes.
650/24 = 27. '08
c) Making use of the two-shift procedure as the bottom, calculate the percentage difference between your two-shift operation and the three-shift operation while described in some parts a) and b).
(27. 08-25)25 sama dengan 1 . 083 or an increase...